And future supplies to Europe.
This paper aims, first, to identify whether Azerbaijan has the potential to produce an additional 10 bcma in 5–6 years’ time and, if yes, which fields this gas will come from. Second, the paper looks into the cost of expanding the entire value chain and the possible source(s) of financing and evaluates whether the projects are commercially viable. Third, the paper investigates gas demand in Azerbaijan and provides a demand growth projection to assess whether domestic demand could eat into production growth. In the same section, an assessment is made of the country’s renewable energy (solar and wind) production potential and how that could potentially offset natural gas in the electricity generation sector by 2030. Finally, the paper provides a comparative analysis of the Turkish market compared with the European country markets to which the gas will flow: Greece, Italy, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Slovenia, North Macedonia, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H) and Croatia. These countries have already shown great interest in buying gas from Azerbaijan and are therefore relevant to the perspectives of the gas suppliers and Azerbaijan’s interest.
This paper would be incomplete if it did not also include a look into the possibility of Turkmen gas exports to Türkiye and Europe via the SGC and an assessment of the extent to which construction of the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline (TCGP) is realistic in the current circumstances. The final section summarizes the findings and presents the conclusions.